‘Karate Kid: Legends’ Headed for $25 Million Debut as ‘Lilo & Stitch’ Continues Box Office Dominance

“Karate Kid: Legends” will ride a wave of nostalgia to a $25 million opening weekend.

The film brings together Jackie Chan, the action legend and star of 2010’s “Karate Kid,” with Ralph Macchio, who popularized the crane kick way back in the 1984 original. The Sony Pictures release will also be lifted by the popularity of “Cobra Kai,” the Netflix series which extended the franchise into streaming. Some rival studios think “Karate Kid: Legends” could hit $30 million in its inaugural weekend if the fans turn out in force.

Even the more conservative projections would be a respectable result for the sequel, which cost a relatively economical $45 million to produce. However, it won’t be enough to unseat Disney’s “Lilo & Stitch,” last weekend’s box office champ. The family-friendly release earned a massive $182.6 million over the Memorial Day holiday. It should generate more than $60 million in its second weekend. Globally, “Lilo & Stitch” will pass the $400 million mark by Thursday and is already shaping up to be one of the year’s biggest hits. It’s an impressive result for a movie that cost just $100 million to make and was originally intended to debut on Disney+.

“Mission: Impossible — The Final Reckoning” will also give “Karate Kids: Legends” some stiff competition for second place. The action-adventure will likely add more than $30 million to its gross after debuting to $79 million over the holiday weekend. “The Final Reckoning” is approaching $300 million globally, but with a $400 million budget, the Tom Cruise sequel needs to keep drawing crowds. Turning a profit — at least theatrically — may be as difficult to pull off as breaking into a sunken submarine in the Arctic Ocean.

The weekend’s other new wide release, A24’s “Bring Her Back,” is eyeing a $6 million debut. The Australian supernatural horror film follows siblings who uncover a terrifying ritual at their foster mother’s home. The movie has a lot of upside given the popularity of the genre, so don’t be surprised if it outperforms expectations. It helps that critics have embraced the picture and Sally Hawkins’ central performance, handing it a 90% “fresh” rating on Rotten Tomatoes.

On the arthouse front, Focus Features will premiere Wes Anderson’s “The Phoenician Scheme” in limited release. It’s another star-studded, meticulously designed fable from “The Grand Budapest Hotel” and “Rushmore” filmmaker with an ensemble that includes Benicio del Toro, Mia Threapleton, Riz Ahmed, Tom Hanks and Benedict Cumberbatch.

The movie business is looking much more stable than it did just a few months ago. The Memorial Day box office set a new record and exhibitors, who have endured strikes and pandemics that upended their industry, are eager to build on the momentum of hits like “Lilo & Stitch,” “A Minecraft Movie,” and “Sinners.”

Maybe Daniel LaRusso can keep the good times rolling.