Emmy Predictions: Lead Actor (Limited/TV Movie) — Will Colin Farrell Continue His Awards Sweep for ‘The Penguin?’

Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Limited or Anthology Series or TV Movie Commentary (Updated April 3, 2025): From Oscar nominees making their mark on the small screen to Emmy hopefuls ready for their first nod, greats like Colin Farrell, Stephen Graham and Paul Giamatti are among this season’s top contenders.

At the front of the pack is Colin Farrell, whose haunting and transformative turn as Oswald Cobblepot, a.k.a. “The Penguin.” has ignited the awards conversation, sweeping the fall and winter ceremonies. Farrell fully disappears into the character in this gritty, HBO noir spinoff of “The Batman,” expanding the mythos with emotional depth and tragic gravitas.

Stephen Graham continues his rise as one of the most respected dramatic actors working today. In Netflix’s “Adolescence,” he plays a troubled father trying to reconcile what his son may (or may not) have done. A raw, human performance that Graham masters, especially in the final episodes, that is unflinching, complex, and heartbreaking.

The surprise breakout of the season, Cooper Koch has stunned audiences with his portrayal of Erik Menendez in Netflix’s “Monsters” anthology. Following in the footsteps of Evan Peters’ Emmy-nominated turn as Jeffrey Dahmer, Koch taps into a mix of vulnerability, repression, and explosive emotion in a performance that refuses to let viewers look away. But will there be enough room for both Menendez Brothers which also includes Nicholas Alexander Chavez.

Brian Tyree Henry is long overdue for major Emmy recognition. After an Emmy nomination for “Atlanta” and an Oscar nomination for “Causeway” (2022), his role in “Dope Thief” may finally bring him to the winner’s circle. In this gritty Apple TV+ crime drama, Henry plays a former addict pulled into one last job that spirals into a deeper reckoning with his past.

Coming off a close run-up to the Oscar podium with “The Holdovers,” which earned him his second Oscar nomination and a Golden Globe win, Paul Giamatti is back on Emmy voters’ radar with his chilling role in Netflix’s “Black Mirror.”

A show like “Black Mirror” inevitably sparks debate over which episode stands out as a viewer’s favorite. For many, including this writer, that distinction may belong to “Eulogy,” the fifth episode of Season 7 starring Academy Award nominee Paul Giamatti. A poignant parable about memory and lost love, it evokes the same emotional resonance as “Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind” (2004) and is likely to draw comparisons to the beloved “Black Mirror” episode, “San Junipero.” It may ultimately be remembered not just as a highlight of the season, but as one of the strongest episodes in the series’ history, in addition to being one of Giamatti’s very best acting performances ever (a mighty feat).

(The list of predicted nominees and contenders is incomplete and will be updated every Thursday throughout the TV Awards season.)